This column continues the discussion including the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in future warfare. We know that emerging innovations within cutting-edge science and technology (S&T) areas carry the potential to revolutionize governmental structures, economies, and life as we know it. In Geoană’s words, NATO wants to seize the opportunities that technology offers and find solutions for our most pressing challenges. The widespread enthusiasm for emerging technologies is reflected not only in official rhetoric but is also codified in respective national technology strategies and the global upswing of dedicated funding. Errors in AI are very difficult to understand and improve, and Machine Learning systems can only be as good as their hypothetical data. As new and unpredicted technologies are emerging at a seemingly unprecedented pace globally, communication of those new discoveries is occurring faster than ever, meaning that the unique ownership of a new technology is no longer a sufficient position, if not impossible. Technology and the Future of Warfare. Off-the-shelf unmanned aerial systems (UAS), carrying a ‘payload’ of explosives or biological material, flown by terrorists or enemy armed forces into a crowded building or military base. Call for Applications: MWI’s 2020–21 Fellow and Adjunct Scholar Programs. How we will maintain our values while we develop new technologies is a critical question to consider. The Future Of War. These concepts and the underlying strategic importance were articulated at the multi-national level in NATO’s May 2010 New Strategic Concept paper: “Less predictable is the possibility that research breakthroughs will transform the technological battlefield…. We should not rush into way-ahead-of-its-time programs like the visionary but ill-fated Future Combat System. To meet future demands, the joint force and the U.S. Air Force should invest in more precision, information, and automation; build additional capacity; maintain a robust forward posture; and reinforce agility at all levels of warfare. One must always be cognizant and skeptical of slipping into a technological deterministic mindset. The most destructive periods of history tend to be those when the means of aggression have gained the upper hand in the art of waging war.”. Showcase Presentation on AI and Big Data with Dr. Ana Isabel Barros As the role of technology within warfare continues to increase, it is important to investigate whether or not the consequences of these weapons are being adequately considered. Follow this page and our social media channels from more detailed summaries of the sessions from this #NATO2030 event which will be published in the upcoming days. This author needs to put down the thesaurus and write for content, not for length of the word or length f the sentence or length of the article. Currently variables and metrics are neither well-characterized nor well-quantified, particularly for specific-defense related concepts. ... Technology not only continues to rapidly develop, but new and emerging tech is also integrated into the daily lives of citizens faster than ever before. Ralphie from ‘A Christmas Story’ could have been the first child in space. he public sector has the ability to serve as, for start-ups whose risks are difficult to measure, government investment promotes confidence among private investors. The Future of Technology in Warfare Warfare and technology make the perfect partners of destruction. Militaries should focus on “explainability” and remember that AI/ML is a “statistical rather than smart” technology. Some states, such as China and those in the Middle East, that have devised new technology strategies are experiencing profound economic and societal transitions. Required fields are marked *. Threats in the international security landscape have never been so diverse or so quick to materialize. The speed at which technology is changing is daunting, and NATO needs an architecture that acknowledges this reality. Weapons that have existed for decades are rapidly developing more effective capabilities, for example, missiles that travel far faster than sound and thus perhaps require defense systems that detect and respond more quickly than humans. The idea is that small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS), or drones, can collect data at tactical levels, buzzing around … Polus Tower II, Vajnorská 100/B, 831 04 Bratislava If we give up our values system, then our position is permanently damaged. Then disaster struck. Panel One: The Future of AI: Bridging the Knowledge and Capability Gap IN THE PAST, predictions about future warfare have often put too much emphasis on new technologies and doctrines. This is especially true for the U.S. military, which emphasizes network-centric operations in its pursuit of security objectives in the traditional domains of land, sea and air, and in the emerging domain of cyberspace. Anticipating the types of threats that may emerge as science and technology advance, the potential consequences of those threats, and the probability that new and more disperse types of enemies will obtain or pursue them is necessary. This initiative will begin with a conference on November 25 th focusing on The Future of Warfare and the Role of New and Emerging Technologies that will bring together experts from the fields of technology, security, and public policy. Contemporary analyses often expose the tenuous links or disconnections among mainstream scholarship on international security and war (or strategic) studies, understanding of the defense technological innovation and acquisition processes, and fundamental understanding of the underlying science. If NATO wants to fully harness innovation, it needs to address the delay between initial funding and implementation; it is not enough to find novel innovations. By the way, there are two spelling mistakes in this article. Technology. NATO needs to modernise its ‘on-ramping’ and procurement of new technologies from start-ups and increase its involvement with SMEs. The Modern War Institute does not screen articles to fit a particular editorial agenda, nor endorse or advocate material that is published. Your email address will not be published. The views expressed are those of the authors, and do not reflect the official position of the United States Military Academy, Department of the Army, or Department of Defense. NATO is committed to adjusting “the way it does business,” and the Alliance wants to maintain dialogue with industry, including with non-traditional providers, at every stage of the acquisition process. Science, Technology, and the Future of Warfare. But they differ with respect to critical socio-political and economic criteria for national prosperity and competitiveness (e.g., demography, research and development [R&D] infrastructure and sustainment, and resource endowments versus dependence). We should have predicted — back in 1990s — that the necessary technology for such a program would not be available for decades yet. At the same time, to deny or dismiss the role of technology in effecting the outcome (as well as outbreak) of war and conflict is also perilous. It speaks to us from the past, but whispers very softly. : Recap, GLOBSEC Appoints Oscar Sanz-Paris as the Think-tank’s Ambassador for the Financial Services Sector in North America, The Future of Warfare and the Role of New and Emerging Technologies: Recap, Château Béla Central European Strategic Forum 2020, NATO 2030: NATO – Private Sector Dialogues with GLOBSEC, GEOPE – “Geopolitical Europe: Are the EU Member-states Ready for It?”. Harnessing the power of knowledge from member states and partners is essential for NATO to become a trusted partner on AI. Getting the Military and Social Scientists Back Together: The Need for “Expeditionary Social Science”, Video: The Story of the Capture of Saddam Hussein with Eric Maddox. When asked what are the current approaches and thinking on means for deterring emerging technologies of concern (beyond cyber) to the U.S., then-USSTRATCOM Commander General Robert Kehler (USAF) responded that “surprise is what keeps me up at night” and cited current uncertainty in how to assess and address emerging and disruptive technologies. Critically and frequently lacking – in comparative technical or engineering-based studies of emerging technologies –are consideration of political, historical, institutional, organizational, economic, and social factors. Conceptually, technologies can be seen as evolutionarily advancing current capabilities or those pressing to the ‘bleeding edge’ that enable disruptive, revolutionary capabilities developments. Rather, the Modern War Institute provides a forum for professionals to share opinions and cultivate ideas. The STO’s work illustrates the importance of continued collaboration in this field and the private sector can learn from this approach. A critical piece of the future of networked warfare is a technology already familiar to many consumers and hobbyists: small drones. NATO and national governments with similar values need to ensure that their standards become the global standards of AI. Synthesizing technical research along with social science research is essential to understanding the impact of technology on warfare. Threats from Russia and China also underline the importance of our values. Technology is important for all industries, and even non-tech focused companies are becoming much more focused on emerging tech. While the suggestions like those that nanotechnology will enable a new class of weapons that will alter the geopolitical landscape remain unrealized, a number of unresolved security puzzles underlying emerging technologies have implications for international security, defense policy, deterrence, governance, and arms control regimes. Maritime mine warfare technology is about to come of age. Scientists recruited by the government have been developing some pretty crazy technology. The Irregular Warfare Podcast is Looking for a New Team Member! Get the latest news from GLOBSEC monthly to your inbox. How, when, where, and in what form the shifting nature of technological progress may bring enhanced or entirely new capabilities, many of which are no longer the exclusive domain of the United States, is contested and requires better analytical tools to enable U.S. assessment, preparation, and response. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. If we give up our values system, then our position is permanently damaged. The future of war: Will new technology unleash greater bloodshed than in 1918? NATO also needs to ensure that the human part of its warfare preparation is being developed, and innovation strategy needs to be accompanied by a strategy for integration. This will help to bridge the existing acquisition gap, and to maintain technological investments beyond the initial testing period. The extent to which these emerging technologies may exacerbate or mitigate the defense challenges that states will pose in the future to U.S. and regional interests needs to be examined. While military leaders may long for a great technological breakthrough that would turn a war in their favor or eliminate the threat of war, such breakthroughs are actually quite rare. In the future war will be fought primarily by robots, but until then the technology of warfare will continue to advance the capabilities of today's soldier on the battlefield. Increased collaboration is needed to address hybrid threats & emerging technologies, including formulating legal frameworks to deal with these threats. Although it is impossible to stop countries with different values from using AI as they wish, NATO and its partners can control their own use and develop high standards. Its almost unreadable. Threats from Russia and China also underline the importance of our values. In this sense the geopolitics of AI provide NATO, EU, and partners with an opportunity to unite on maintaining high standards and ethical practices for the use of AI. That is the notion that technology alone, or is even the most important factor, can determine the outbreak or outcome of conflict. It is also essential to protect our innovation. Future Warfare has also proven to be popular among the Internet users who surf our homepage. This is pretty shoddy work. Of critical importance in considering the national and international security implications of technology is that anticipated scenarios should be plausible within constraints of physical viability as well as likely within institutional capacities and tacit capabilities. In order to ensure that new technologies work for us and not against, cooperation with the private sector and academia is more crucial now than ever. The novel scientific principles that underlie the character of these uncertain technologies and their convergence with political and social institutions reveal conceptual and empirical confusion associated with assessing the national security implications. Per sentence the Strategic technologies Program will examine the nexus between technologies with defense applications and emerging technologies 25... 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